One Vote Matters

Barack Obama - Democratic Frontrunner

by polrick on February 13th, 2008

That’s right. At this point, I am prepared to state that Barack Obama is the Democratic frontrunner,  although not by much. Although according to most counts, Obama’s 1,208 delegates gives him a slight edge over Clinton’s 1,185, 23 delegates does not a frontrunner make. What makes a frontrunner is a lead in delegates with the likelihood of increasing that lead over time, momentum, fundraising, and increasing support among a range of groups (especially those groups that formerly supported the other candidate). Obama has all three of these traits:

• This was a huge week for the Obama campaign. He went into the week behind in delegate, but after sweeping all 7 Democratic contest since February 9th, Obama has pulled ahead in delegates and has gained the perception of strong momentum. In fact, in the 7 Democratic contests since Saturday (NB, WA, LA, ME, VA, MD, and DC), Obama’s average margin of victory was 31.3%.
• Obama is favored to win the next 2 Democratic contests - Wisconsin and Hawaii, both scheduled for February 19th. Two recent surveys show Obama with about a 10% lead in Wisconsin. Although there are no good recent surveys of Hawaiian voters, Obama was born in Honolulu and lived there for much of his youth. This alone makes him the favorite to win in Hawaii.
• By the time Democrats in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont vote on March 4th, it will have have an entire month since Clinton won a primary. The news media is already edging toward calling Obama the Democratic frontrunner, and after he wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii, the news will spend the following two weeks reporting on his winning momentum. Although Clinton is currently favored to win in Texas and Ohio, I consider it a very real possibility that all the media coverage of Obama’s wins will create enough momentum to bring him victory in at least one of those two big states. And of course, Democratic delegates are distributed proportionally, so even if Clinton wins in both TX and OH, but does so by small margins, Obama will retain strong representation in those state delegations at the national party convention. Remember, in the Democratic race the margin of victory in each state  is important!
• Obama is a fundraising powerhouse. He set a one-month record in January, raising an amazing $32 million. By all accounts his fundraising continues to outpace Clinton’s, and this week’s sweep can only help fuel Obama’s fundraising machine.
• In today’s so-called “Potomac Primarie,” Obama performed well among groups that have, up to now, favored Clinton. Today, Obama won among white men, and he did his best yet with women and older voters. These groups, which previously supported Clinton, seem to be slipping into Obama’s camp. And again, his sweep this week can only increase that trend.

If these five characteristics don’t make a frontrunner, then I don’t know what does.

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POSTED IN: Political Campaigning